The “Driver Shortage” Myth: Is Trucking Short on Drivers — or Short on Pay?
Question: “Driver shortage” or “pay shortage”?
Answer: It depends on which part of trucking you’re talking about. The loudest “shortage” claims are mostly tied to the long-distance, for-hire truckload segment — where turnover is high and retention is the real battle. Multiple industry and research voices point to pay systems and working conditions as major drivers of churn, while major industry groups argue the shortage is still real due to qualifications, lifestyle, and hiring constraints.
Is there really a “truck driver shortage”?
Answer: There’s no single, universally agreed definition across the industry — and that’s the whole fight. The American Trucking Associations (ATA) publishes an annual driver shortage estimate and forecasts continued shortages, especially in over-the-road for-hire truckload. At the same time, a National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) report focused on pay and working conditions in long-distance trucking highlights persistent turnover and retention problems and examines how compensation methods and work conditions connect to safety and retention.
If you hear “shortage” and you’re seeing trucks sitting, orientation classes packed, and drivers cycling through companies, what you’re often looking at is churn — not “nobody exists to do the job.”
Read more: ATA Driver Shortage Report & Forecast (July 23, 2025) | NASEM: Pay and Working Conditions in Long-Distance Trucking & Bus Industries (2024)
What does “shortage” mean in plain English?
Answer: In basic labor economics, a “shortage” usually means employers can’t fill jobs even after raising wages enough to attract workers. In trucking, the argument breaks down because pay is often complicated (cents-per-mile, unpaid detention time, inconsistent miles, unpaid waiting) and conditions vary wildly by segment (private fleets vs. truckload vs. LTL).
So two things can be true at once:
- Some carriers struggle to hire/retain drivers at the pay + conditions they’re offering.
- Drivers may not be leaving “trucking” — they may be leaving that segment, that company, or that pay structure.
Why do a lot of drivers say it’s a “pay shortage,” not a driver shortage?
Answer: Because many drivers point to retention as the real issue: unpaid time, inconsistent home time, poor dispatch, and pay systems that don’t compensate delays fairly. OOIDA (Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association) has been publicly pushing back on the “driver shortage” narrative and emphasizing turnover/churn as the core problem.
Reference: OOIDA: “Driver shortage” narrative exposed as myth (Nov 26, 2024)
What did the National Academies (NASEM) report focus on?
Answer: The 2024 NASEM work examined pay methods and working conditions in the long-distance, for-hire context and discusses how compensation and conditions relate to safety and retention. It also directly addresses retention/turnover dynamics in long-distance trucking.
Official National Academies pages: NASEM News Release (Oct 15, 2024) | NASEM Chapter: Driver Retention and Turnover
What does ATA argue — and why do they still call it a shortage?
Answer: ATA argues the shortage is concentrated in over-the-road for-hire truckload and that barriers like lifestyle factors, safety screening, drug testing, age/experience, and qualification issues matter. They also maintain that “classic” shortage definitions don’t fully capture trucking’s labor dynamics.
Reference: ATA Driver Shortage Report & Forecast (July 23, 2025)
So what’s the most honest way to say it?
Answer: The “driver shortage” headline is too blunt. The more accurate conversation is:
- Truckload has a retention problem (churn) — and pay/conditions are a big piece of why.
- Some fleets will always be “short” if their pay model leaves drivers eating unpaid time and uncertainty.
- Other segments retain drivers far better — which tells you the job can be sustainable when the deal is fair.
What can owner-operators and small fleets do with this information (right now)?
Answer: Treat this like a business diagnostic. If the market is shouting “shortage,” but your phone is quiet, that’s a signal: the problem isn’t just driver count — it’s where the money is flowing and how risk is being pushed downstream.
Practical moves:
- Price your time, not just your miles. If detention and delays aren’t compensated, you’re donating labor.
- Track your true cost-per-mile and your true revenue-per-day. A “good” CPM can still be a bad week if you’re parked unpaid.
- Run tight compliance. In a soft market, carriers with clean records and organized systems survive longer and book better freight.
- Build retention like a system. If you have drivers: predictable schedules, clear standards, and pay that matches reality beats constant recruiting.
Why does Freight Pro Hub talk about this on a compliance site?
Answer: Because when margins get tight, the carriers who make it are the ones who can prove they’re running legal, organized, and audit-ready — without panic. Compliance is part of survival, not “extra paperwork.”
Sources (Credible References)
- National Academies (NASEM) — Pay and Working Conditions in the Long-Distance Truck and Bus Industries (2024)
- National Academies — Report news release (Oct 15, 2024)
- National Academies — Driver Retention and Turnover chapter
- American Trucking Associations — Updated Driver Shortage Report & Forecast (Jul 23, 2025)
- OOIDA — “Truck driver shortage narrative exposed as myth” (Nov 26, 2024)